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Quality of winds aloft


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lhe
lhe
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Winds are (generally) stronger at higher altitudes.
Indeed.

The winds given by Skydemon seem quite reasonable given the TAF. Above the friction layer over land you would expect the wind direction to be roughly 30 degrees higher and the velocity three times higher compared to the surface wind. At 2400 feet you would probably (depending on the weather situation) be above the friction layer. The difference would be less in gusty conditions.

Given the Skydemon wind figure, the surface wind should be about 143/07 which agrees nicely with both the TAF (150/09) and METAR (150/08).

Know your MET!
Tim Dawson
Tim Dawson
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You cannot compare a surface wind forecast in a TAF with the wind forecast at altitude. Obviously at low altitudes they will be pointing in roughly the same direction, but they will often be much stronger than at the surface.
adhawkins
adhawkins
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TAF forecasts contains winds at ground level doesn't it? The plog will contain the wind for the level you've planned to fly at.

Winds are (generally) stronger at higher altitudes.

Andy


screetch82
screetch82
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I also had some issues today with the wind.

This is from SD:

Hamburg (EDDH) TAF TAF EDDH 240500Z 2406/2512 15008KT CAVOK BECMG 2408/2410 15013KT PROB30 TEMPO 2412/2416 15015G25KT BECMG 2419/2421 15008KT METAR EDDH 240550Z 15009KT CAVOK 02/M00 Q1017 NOSIG



so 8kts or something like this. however the wind in the plog was:

MSA Level TAS TrkT Wind HdgMGS Dist Time ETA ATA
EDDH HAMBURG EDDH HAMBURG 1500 2400 98291 173/22 275 856,9 5
EDHF ITZEHOE-HU … EDHF ITZEHOE-HU …1400 2400 98337 187/25 328 1192111
EDHF ITZEHOE-HUNGRIGER … EDHF ITZEHOE-HUNGRIGER … N1 N1 1800 2400 98125 187/26 136 832014
N1 N1 N2 N2 1100 2400 98189 187/26 186 727,5 6
N2 N2 EDDH HAMBURG EDDH HAMBURG 1000 2400 98186 172/22 181 743,2 3



You can see it calculated with an average of 22-26kts so all Mgd Headings were not correct.
any ideas?

________________________________________________________________________
Galaxy Tab Plus 7 inch, NavsGo GO7100 as of March11
Tim Dawson
Tim Dawson
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It would be a mistake to call one forecast more accurate than another; they are both just forecasts. One day the GFS model output might more closely reflect actual conditions, on another day, it might be the local Met Office model output. I would expect on average the local forecast would more closely match, but the differences on average should not be significant for VFR operations.
rg
rg
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I was comparing the winds in SD against F214 this weekend and there was a considerable (20kts +) difference @ 3000'

Has any work been done to verify if GFS is more or less accurate than Met Ofice forcasts for the current day?
Tim Dawson
Tim Dawson
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Winds aloft forecasts are sourced from the Global Forecast System.
pschartau
pschartau
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I am currently doing my IMC rating, so a lot of time spent working out drift corrected headings etc. Over the last few weeks, I have found the Metoffice forecast wind charts (Form F214) to be significantly more accurate than the winds aloft shown in Skydemon (where I would normally set a precise take-off time). What is the souce for winds aloft in Skydemon?
GO

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