Flyable conditions are wrong

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Flyable conditions are wrong

Author	Message
Tim Dawson	Tim Dawson posted 3/2/2021 9:45:10 AM Post Details Share Post
Group: Forum Members Posts: 8K, Visits: 9.1K	You're definitely correct that a sandstorm wouldn't be picked up by this feature. Overall though most people are reporting an excellent correlation with reality.
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b3nn0	b b3nn0 posted 3/2/2021 11:56:17 AM Post Details Share Post
b Group: Forum Members Posts: 42, Visits: 3.4K	It does feel a bit buggy from time to time though.. E.g. Innsburck right now - severe CAVOK, but lots of read that says "Ceiling 0ft"... Webcam also shows perfect conditions. No cloud or fog anywhere near (see 13/-6 temp/dew).. Edited 3/2/2021 12:26:04 PM by b3nn0
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Tim Dawson	Tim Dawson posted 3/3/2021 9:57:54 AM Post Details Share Post
Group: Forum Members Posts: 8K, Visits: 9.1K	It isn't unusual to have a CAVOK island with lots of low cloud around, in fact the red on that image shows clearly that the bad stuff is patchy. A solid bit of red, there for a while, over a CAVOK airfield (ideally with a webcam) would clearly be an area where the forecast should be looked at.
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b3nn0	b b3nn0 posted 3/3/2021 4:41:38 PM Post Details Share Post
b Group: Forum Members Posts: 42, Visits: 3.4K	+x Tim Dawson - 3/3/2021 9:57:54 AM It isn't unusual to have a CAVOK island with lots of low cloud around, in fact the red on that image shows clearly that the bad stuff is patchy. A solid bit of red, there for a while, over a CAVOK airfield (ideally with a webcam) would clearly be an area where the forecast should be looked at. These patches where certainly not there. It was the clearest of days, probably 50km+ of visibility, you wouldn't find a single cloud if you were searching for them. And certainly also no fog anywhere near (Temp. 13°, dewpoint -6°). TBH, considering how the overlay changes from "Everything perfect" to "Ceiling 0ft" from one pixel to the next, it seems a bit like you are interpreting "no data for this location" as "0ft" or something like that (not knowing the code or formats involved of course, but that's just what it looks like). Here is a webcam image of Innsbruck from around the same time where my Screenshot was made: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/innsbruck/2021/03/02/1120
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Tim Dawson	Tim Dawson posted 3/4/2021 10:18:06 AM Post Details Share Post
Group: Forum Members Posts: 8K, Visits: 9.1K	Great, thanks. Please alert us again if you see the same thing, as we can hopefully then point our forecasters to the webcam and their data sooner. This is the way the algorithms get improved.
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pilot-byom	p pilot-byom posted 3/4/2021 10:34:44 AM Post Details Share Post
p Group: Forum Members Posts: 323, Visits: 388	+x Tim Dawson - 3/4/2021 10:18:06 AM Great, thanks. Please alert us again if you see the same thing, as we can hopefully then point our forecasters to the webcam and their data sooner. This is the way the algorithms get improved. Forecasts will get back to normal once air traffic significantly starts again. Weather forecasting currently still suffers badly from the missing weather data collected from airliners. Computer simulation of weather without current adjustment data is video gaming ... ;-).
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Tim Dawson	Tim Dawson posted 3/5/2021 9:54:56 AM Post Details Share Post
Group: Forum Members Posts: 8K, Visits: 9.1K	I could be wrong but I don't think the forecast data used for Flyable Conditions is derived from any data received from airliners; which specific met products are you referring to?
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pilot-byom	p pilot-byom posted 3/5/2021 10:44:04 AM Post Details Share Post
p Group: Forum Members Posts: 323, Visits: 388	+x Tim Dawson - 3/5/2021 9:54:56 AM I could be wrong but I don't think the forecast data used for Flyable Conditions is derived from any data received from airliners; which specific met products are you referring to? It is not applied on the level of specific met products, the correctional data in forecasting is built directly into the mathematical models - the quality of everything forecasting beyond 3 or 6 hours time frame was always established only by including actual data of a big number of forecast stations. I remember the times when shipping business stopped delivering met data (that was once a mandatory obligation for each and every ship on the oceans, to deliver met data once a day) 'because satellites will do that job now' = one of the bigger failures in science, that did hurt met forecasting models deeply. Current estimate of the scientific crowd is that it may take something like up to 2 years to get the mathematical models back to were they where before Covid-19 only due to the missing air data. Edited 3/5/2021 11:03:35 AM by pilot-byom
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Tim Dawson	Tim Dawson posted 3/8/2021 9:54:35 AM Post Details Share Post
Group: Forum Members Posts: 8K, Visits: 9.1K	How interesting!
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TouchTheSky	T TouchTheSky posted 3/12/2021 10:53:41 AM Post Details Share Post
T Group: Forum Members Posts: 153, Visits: 4.4K	Here is another wrong condition (webcam from http://www.wuerzburgwebcam.de/live/index.html):
	Reply Like 3